Pakistan has experience with US sanctions. It has faced them for over three decades. In 1998 in the aftermath of the Bharati Nuclear Test (carried out with the full cognizance and encouragement of the Clinton Administration) politicians in Islamabad sat down and figured out the alternatives when faced with possible dilapidating sanctions against Pakistan. A plan was chalked out and the Nawaz Shairf Government looking at all the alternatives, and then forged ahead with a reciprocal response to the Pokran at Chaghai. Pakistan was slapped with dilapidating sanctions which lasted a decade ’till 911 when the US once again needed Pakistan
to fight its battle in Afghanistan.The same is happening now.
The US aid to Pakistan totals $1.5 billion per year which amounts to less than 3% of the Pakistani GDP. Belt tightening would resolve part of the issue. The fallout from the stoppage of the Kerry Lugar Bill would impact the IMF and the World Bank, both institutions run by the USA. Washington would then begin to put the squeeze on other donors to make sure that they did not help Islamabad.
Despite these difficulties, the government in Islamabad, often considered compliant and obsequious is looking at all alternatives. This confirms the reports that the PPP government is incapable of releasing Mr. “Rayond Davis” even if it really did want to. The fiasco as it has unfolded in Lahore has truly placed President Zardari’s government between a rock and a hard place. The case is in the hands of the judiciary.
As anyone who has not been living in the cave knows, the judiciary of Chaudhry Iftikhar Cahudhry will not tolerate any interference in his courts. The resignation of Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, as well as the publication of documentation proving that Mr. “Raymond Davis” was on a Business Visa has complicated matters beyond what diplomats in Washington recognize. The fact that this happened in Mozang Chungi– the heart of Lahore didn’t make it easier for either the US Consulate or the PPP government.
Plan “B” failed because the “Patriotic son of Pakistan” refused to forge the Foreign Ministry Ledger (which would have retroactively placed “Davis’s” name on the listing as a diplomat”). The Court now has the original documents so Mr. Davis cannot be included in a list of diplomats. Furthermore Mr. Qureshi is now a hostile witness and is not showing restraint or silence in his comments. He has clearly informed the people that he refused to forge the documents. Mr. Qureshi is an elected politicians, and one who has a constituency in Multan. He is not a country bumpkin that fell off the turnip truck. He is intelligent, suave, well respected int he PPP and was actually considers for the position of the Prime Minister. Mr.Quresh a PPP stalwart has followed the path taken by Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto when he disagreed with Ayub Khan at Tashkent and tendered his resignation.
If the murders had happened in Sindh or Islamabad it would have been easier for the PPP to smooth things over. This incident happened in Lahore, the capital of the Punjab, where the Chief Minister belongs to the PMLN. Mr. Shairf’s government is playing hardball and threatened a motion of no confidence against the PPP if it releases “Raymond Davis”. The PLMN can back it up. All other parties would be hard pressed not to support the constitutional overthrown of the government
There is a deeper concern in Pakistan. After a deluge of Wikileaks and President Obama’s rhetoric in Pakistan, there is a genuine feeling in Islamabad that many of the ‘consultants” are actually saboteurs who go around blowing up things in Pakistan. There is almost universals consensus that these mercenaries have to be stopped from doing their dirty chores in Pakistan and that Washington has to understand that Blackwater/Xe/Hyperion killers cannot run amok in Pakistan. Bharati papers have reported and some US papers have validated the stories that the incident in Lahore was a bit deeper than what was portrayed at first. According to some reports, the Mr. “Raymond Davis” was under surveillance and had crossed a red line. He was in an area which was a “No-Go” area. Already declared a Persona Non Grata (PNG) in Khyber Pakhtukhawa, the co-owner of Hyperion Consulting was not liked in Pakistan. After the PNG status he was supposed to have left Pakistan–and he did. However US Ambassador to Pakistan (aka Pakistani Ambassador to USA) Mr. Hussain Haqqani was instrumental in getting 500 visas approved in one day without the proper background checks. Mr. Davis apparently slipped back into Pakistan. The pictures in his possession reveal that he was photographing sensitive Pakistani targets.
According to press reports, Mr “Davis” was apparently being trailed by ISI agents. Mr. Davis killed his pursuers in cold blood, made a movie about it and then called the Consulate for assistance in making his escape. On previous occasions, other “consultants” have been able to intimidate the local authorities and get away with murder. Several scuffles have taken place, but the matter has been hushed up without escalation. This time luck was not on the side of Mr. “Davis”. The Pakistanis were ready and prepared. Because he was being followed, backups were able to reach the scene of the crime and arrest the murderer.
The US Consulate’s role in this matter was very suspicious. Instead of assisting the local authorities, it engineered a fake story about the motor-cyclists being professional thieves. The fake robbery story did not fly with the government of Pakistan, because it knew the backgrounds of the agents who were following Mr. “Davis”. The intensity with which the US Consulate reacted, and the depth of the threats that emanated from Washington clearly informed the Pakistanis that something big was up–and this could not be ignored.
It is obvious that the establishment is demanding the immediate deportation of all these so called “consultants”. An unplanned and sudden change in travel plans of Mr. Rajiv Shah, the US Agency’s Administrator Rajiv Shah to Pakistan may have sent alarm bells in Islamabad.. Faced with being thrown out of power by the PLMN and other parties, President Zardari is now chairing a Round Table Conference (RTC) of all political parties to deal with the situation. Raw emotions are at fever pitch. The government will not be able to withstand tsunami in the aftermost of a clean release of Mr. “Raymond Davis”.
The government egged on by the PLMN, the religious parties, and the Army, feels that by tightening belts, and securing alternative sources, Islamabad can whether the storm. As such the following action plan has been prepared to deal with the crisis and possible cut-off of funds from the US.
- Prime Minister Gilani will be visiting the Sate of Kuwait.
- This would be followed by the visit of President Asif Ali Zardari.
- The Presidency and Foreign Office are actively busy finalizing the visit of President Zardari to Japan with special focus on securing more economic assistance.
- China, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already been contacted about the situation.
- Much to American chagrin, Iran is a untapped resource for Pakistan and Tehran would gladly step into the vacuum.
While the US has backed off from some of the crass threats, it is a fact that the Trilateral meeting has been postponed. Washington may have realized that a heavy dose of threats could shut-off the supply-chain at a time that the US is planning a withdrawal from Afghanistan. Surely a cut-off of relations with Islamabad would impact the schedule–which in term could impact the next American Presidential elections. “At this point of time, there is no such talk in the United States,” Acting Spokesperson of the US Embassy Courteny Beale told The Nation.
Since the major chunk of the US civilian assistance under the KLA programme is disbursed through the USAID, further gives credence to the notions that US was already working on plans to use aid as critical leverage against Pakistan.
Apart from the $1.5 billion from the Kerry Lugar Bill, the government also fears that the IMF funding of 3.2 Billion may be cut-off.
The ruling coalition is thus planning its new budget for the year 2011-12 without US assistance.
